- Introduction
After a disputed presidential elections held in November 2011 the incumbent president, Joseph Kabila, was declared the official winner in December 2011. The government is a coalition government represented by 20 parties with the president’s party the Parti du peuple pour la reconstruction et la démocratie (PPRD) holding the most ministerial posts. With a weakened opposition and continued divisions there is little to oppose the present government. As highlighted by the recent presidential and legislative elections, regional and political division within the country poses serious challenges to political stability in DRC. With regular restriction of freedom of expression and association, avenues for democratic opposition are limited. Provincial assembly elections have been tentatively scheduled for early 2013, but are likely to be delayed and it is doubtful if these elections will ever take place. If the elections do take place there is a likelihood the same level of insecurity as witnessed in 2011 will occur and this could result in programme delays.
The largest threat to political stability comes from armed conflict in the eastern provinces of the country. There has been an escalation in fighting in 2012 not only in North and South Kivu but also in the eastern province of Katanga, effectively both of Concern’s areas of operation. The emergence of new rebel groups have been witnessed in 2012 with the most significant being M23. Named after the March 23, 2009 agreement, M23 will persist in challenging the government both in terms of military presence and political force. They are in the process of setting up separate administrative structures in the areas they control and are collecting taxes. It is expected that M23 will continue to form allegiances with many smaller rebel groups creating a network of support throughout the Kivus. An UN experts report has named Rwanda as supporting the M23 and therefore relations between DRC and Rwanda are strained.
It is expected that the situation in the Kivus will remain unstable due to the government’s inability to control the situation on the ground. With the government armed forces trying to show strength and suppress the M23 rebellion, other ethnic groups and militias with similar agendas have already increased their activities in the area. Observers comment that the government armed forces have capacity constraints due to poor discipline, lack of resources including infrequent salary payments and predict that they will struggle to make any inroads with the current situation. The instability in the Kivus – 220,000 internally displaced in North Kivu and some 60,000 people fleeing to Rwanda and Uganda1 - and in Katanga has created new waves of displaced populations adding to the already large numbers of displaced. Concern will therefore continue to provide humanitarian assistance in eastern Congo.
The DRC remains bottom of the Human Development Index, has an under five mortality rate of 158 per thousand, 43% stunting in under-fives, 47% coverage of improved drinking water sources and 14% sanitary latrine coverage. The paucity of progress in improving the wellbeing of the population in turn increases the difficulty of escaping from the constant risk of a return to wider violent conflict. The development of the new Country Strategic plan has been postponed until 2013 when the new Country Director takes up his post.