Minimal levels of acute food insecurity expected despite the lean season
KEY MESSAGES
Normal crop development is likely due to normal rainfall distribution. Localized rainfall deficits in July could lead to reduced yields in drier areas. Yet overall, the anticipated dry spell is likely to be less dry than usual in July. A tropical cyclone is anticipated to reach the north coast in June and could impact local production.
Acute food insecurity is likely to remain Minimal (Phase 1 IPC 2.0) through the projection period, even with the ongoing lean season, as poor households are meeting their needs. Despite the seasonal rise in prices, good national and regional production of red beans kept prices low and accessible. Further food access will result from the Primera season in August.
Coffee rust will reduce the 2013/2014 harvest by at least 35 to 40 percent, which is on average higher than in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Consequently, labor demand and wages are likely to decrease by at least 30 percent during the next harvest (October 2013 to March 2014).