1. Introduction
This paper explores the factors that have been acting upon the peace process between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP). The process has been characterised by fits and starts, seeing a constant cycle of intermittent resumptions of violence and returns to ceasefire. What this protracted and continuing cycle of movement between war and wary peace interspersed with negotiations has shown over time is that neither side has the military or the political wherewithal to win the conflict. At the same time, attempts at negotiations have not been all that successful in setting up an acceptable basis for a political settlement, much less a lasting peace on the island of Mindanao. In 2008, the MILF and the GRP successfully negotiated a Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD) that would have paved the way for moving peace negotiations significantly forward. Subsequent developments, including the declaration by the Supreme Court of the Philippines that the agreement was unconstitutional, reverted the process back to its cycle and just barely avoided the resumption of all-out war between the MILF and the GRP.
We explore in this paper (1) the factors that influence the process of peace talks between the MILF and the Philippine government, and their inability to find a lasting solution to the question of peace in Mindanao; (2) how these factors will impact on the peace talks that resumed on 29–30 January 2010; and (3) given these factors, what the prospects are for the success of the current talks.