Low and affordable food prices will continue throughout the projection period
KEY MESSAGES
An expected above-average Primera harvest starting in August/September will allow poor households to maintain their Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least December, the end of the projection period. Poor households will still be able to meet their needs through the lean season as food reserves are ending.
Principally in the dry corridor, localized rainfall deficits in July and the anticipated moderate to severe canícula, dry spell, (late July/August) may reduce final yields. Some areas (La Unión department) are already showing soil stress levels due to the below-normal rainfall. Crop development in most areas is expected to be average.
Labor demand and wages will decline 30 to 40 percent between October 2013 and March 2014 as a result of coffee rust damage. Households will likely look to diversify income sources in order to compensate for reduced income from the coffee sector.